An Expert Reveals the True Size of Uzbekistan’s «Shadow» Economy

Analyst Timurmalik Elmurodov explained the situation surrounding Uzbekistan’s «shadow» economy, which sparked a significant response last week. Many media outlets and Telegram channels reported that the volume of the country’s «shadow» economy had reached 100 trillion sums, leading to confusion among experts. Previously, the «shadow» economy was estimated to be 40-50% of GDP, while the reported 100 trillion sums represent only about 8%.

As Elmurodov clarified, the confusion arose due to a mistranslation and general misunderstanding of the topic. He explained that the term «shadow economy» is unofficial, and in official documents, other terms are used—such as the «informal,» «hidden,» and «illegal» economy.

The «informal» economy includes activities that are not officially registered. For example, when someone works without a contract, like a carpenter assembling furniture at home without formalizing their business.

The «hidden» economy refers to tax evasion and underreporting of income and turnover. For instance, when a store employs 10 people but only officially registers five of them.

The «illegal» economy encompasses activities such as prostitution, drug trafficking, and other criminal acts.

Returning to the figures, Elmurodov explained that the 100 trillion sums mentioned in the news actually refer to Uzbekistan’s «hidden» economy in 2023, not the «shadow» economy. The «informal» economy was estimated at 323.3 trillion sums, while the «illegal» economy was not considered in this case.

When all these figures are combined, the total volume of the «unobserved» economy amounts to 422.9 trillion sums. This figure represents the 40% of Uzbekistan’s GDP that was previously discussed.

Thus, the expert urges not to confuse the terms and to pay close attention to the sources of information.

The text has been translated by AI. For more accurate information, please refer to the Russian version of the article.

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