What Happened to Apartment and House Prices This Year, and Will They Continue to Rise? An Expert’s Opinion

Buying and selling real estate is one of the most discussed topics in Uzbekistan. This is because apartments and houses in the country are not only seen as living spaces but also as a way to invest money. Many apartments in Tashkent remain unoccupied, as their owners purchased them either for future resale at a higher price or as a means of preserving capital. Analyst Timurmalik Elmuratov shared his insights on what has happened to housing prices this year and what to expect in the future.

According to the expert, housing prices have stopped skyrocketing this year and have returned to a more moderate growth rate. As per the Central Bank’s data, from January to September, new housing prices rose by 7.9%, and old housing by 5% (in dollar terms, the increase was just 1.9% and 4.7%, respectively). By comparison, during the same months in 2023, the price growth was 21.5% and 22.8%, respectively.

Real estate overall is in a state of stagnation: the number of transactions compared to last year has dropped by nearly 20,000. This indicates reduced activity from both buyers and sellers.

“In the last 2–3 years, housing prices in Uzbekistan grew very rapidly, with increases reaching up to 40%. There were many reasons for this: pent-up demand, an influx of relocators driving up rental demand, capital inflows following the start of the war in Ukraine, mortgage development, and other factors. All of this led to an overheated market and significant overvaluation of real estate. Now, demand is starting to stabilize, and the market is cooling down and returning to a more balanced state,” explained the analyst.

Moreover, he noted that mortgage volumes have decreased—both the total amount of loans issued (down by 4%) and the number of recipients (down by 20%). This, in turn, is leading to price corrections in the housing market.

Is an Apartment Still a Good Investment?

This year, the growth in housing prices has not even kept up with inflation, meaning that any financial deposit would have yielded a better return. However, in the long term, apartments remain a good investment due to the significant housing shortage in Uzbekistan.

For this reason, property prices are likely to remain high for a long time. However, the kind of “price boom” seen in 2022–2023 is unlikely to happen again.